Have you ever planted new grass in your yard and covered it with straw? You watch day after day for the grass to grow and see no change. Then one day you look out and suddenly grass is growing everywhere.
Our question is, can we use this same analogy for growth in our schools? Will we wake up one morning and find that we have overcrowding? The School Board has to seriously evaluate the county’s growth and provide our County Commission and citizens with solid data on school growth so we can all be ready for the future.
To see what, if any growth the county is experiencing we’ll look at two things. First, we’ll look at economic and growth trends, and then we’ll look at the actual data in school growth and see if the school growth data mirrors the economic and physical indicators. We’ll also take a quick look at the question of school re-districting.
One doesn’t need actual data to backup the observation that the county is in a growth mode. Large tracks of land in east Roane County have been sold to developers; we have new industrial parks in the east and the west parts of the county, a new interchange at Blackburn Lane on I-40, and new developments on the lake in Rockwood and the Midway area.
The Roane Alliance recently stated that there were eighteen different Chamber grand openings last year and 277 new jobs were created for new and existing businesses. The Alliance also stated that new businesses are expected to bring more than 600 jobs to the county within five years. Two of these companies are already in operation, three have begun construction, and the last three are in the design phase.
The availability of water in east Roane County and the Midway area has contributed to the surge in building permits and the encroachment of west Knoxville can’t be ignored.
Census data shows that Roane County has grown by 13,000 people since 1971 (39,828) to 2008 (52,889). More importantly, Roane County has grown by an average of 250 residents a year for the past five years.
Of the four cities in the county, Kingston has increased by 239 residents since 2000 while Harriman, Rockwood and Oliver Springs have a net growth of zero. In 2006, the population of Kingston passed Rockwood as the county’s second largest city.
In the last census, the Midway community grew 27% and east Roane County grew 19%. Other areas of the county experienced growth rates much lower.
So the intuitive data and the raw census data seem to say that there is growth in the county and that growth is centered in the south and east.
Our challenge now is to compare what the data and observations seem to say with data, that we know is correct, since it is our school enrollment data for the past five years. Enrollment data will help us determine if the new jobs created in the county are actually Roane residents and where the additional 1,000 people live that the census says we have gained in the past six year, but aren’t showing up in the city counts.
Our schools’ enrollment has increased 200 students since 2003. Of this growth our elementary schools have grown by 156 students, middle schools minus 11, and high schools 55.
On the surface, this growth seems moderate, but further analysis shows something quite different.
In the past five years, Harriman schools have lost 113 students or 13% of their enrollment. Since the overall enrollment in our schools has a net growth of 200 in the same time period, the data shows that school growth in the other areas of the county is actually up 313 students.
Kingston area schools have seen a 15% increase in enrollment in the past five years followed by a Midway growth of 7%.
In summary, actual school data mirrors the census data in that the growth is significant in the eastern part of the county. Data also shows that even though the Midway community is experiencing significant growth, school enrollment has seen a modest increase – lending support to the general belief that much of that area’s growth is retirees.
Kingston schools are at 99% classroom capacity and Kingston Elementary School, already at 104% capacity, expects an increase of 45 students next school year. The number is high because they will be losing their smallest class this year, which is the 5th grade. It will be moving to Cherokee Middle School.
What can the School Board do about this shifting of growth in the county? The question of re-districting comes up. It would seem like an obvious short term solution to move some of the Kingston zone to Harriman, since their classroom capacity use is 74%.
But re-districting is not the panacea it appears on the surface. Let’s suppose we re-district 300 (100 for each high, middle and elementary school) children from the Kingston district to Harriman. The students going into the high school and middle school would fit nicely, but Kingston middle and high schools are not at a space crunch at this time. The immediate problem is elementary schools.
Moving 100 elementary students from Kingston to Harriman would result in Kingston Elementary still being close to 92% capacity, but Bowers Elementary school in Harriman, the closest elementary school for Kingston zoned students, would then be at 125% of classroom capacity. Do we then re-district Walnut Hill and Midtown Elementary Schools? What about Oliver Springs and Dyllis? We immediately begin to see a domino effect each time re-district.
Roane County elementary schools are 411 students short of being 100% capacity. Middle schools are within 289, and our high schools in pretty good shape at 897 short of capacity.
No easy solution for the imminent overcrowding facing Roane County schools. But we do know that the growth indicators we all see and feel for the community can be validated by actual numbers. Growth is here and we must act quickly to avoid an overcrowding crisis.
Here are references to the data included in this analysis:
City population growth:
U.S. Census data - http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/SUB-EST2006-4.html
Growth of Roane County http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/tn190090.txt
The population data showing growth in east and south Roane county came from data supplied to the county redistricting committee (one used to set representation on school board and county commission) by CTAS. This committee is required to meet at the end of each census in order to determine if election boundaries change due to population changes.
All school data was provided by Roane County schools.
